Methodology

A model you can argue with.

Five stages take a published dataset to a number you can act on. Each is a different kind of evidence with a different way of being wrong, and each one is labelled wherever it appears on screen.

  1. 01SourceNamed publishers, fetched on a schedule.
  2. 02SignalDated observations, each with a reliability prior.
  3. 03ModelA stated formula, re-derivable by hand.
  4. 04PropagationFour channels, each with its own lag.
  5. 05ImpactA composite, always inside an interval.

Each stage in detail

What GlobalMatrix does not know

No IMF data, company filings, commodity prices, port throughput, policy registry, bilateral trade corridors or price feeds are connected in this build. Where a surface depends on one of those it renders an explicit empty state instead of a plausible-looking stand-in.

The event corpus behind the model is a synthetic, internally consistent scenario set — not a newswire. It is labelled SCENARIO everywhere it appears so it is never mistaken for something that happened.

Verified sources

Live status →

  • World Bank Open Data

    The World Bank Group

    Annual national accounts and development indicators, as reported by member economies.

    Limits — Annual and lagging — the most recent year is often a partial estimate, and revisions land without notice.

  • UN Comtrade

    United Nations Statistics Division

    Reported bilateral merchandise trade values by reporter, partner and commodity.

    Limits — The public preview tier is sampled and abbreviated. Mirrored flows do not sum to world totals.

  • GDELT Project

    George Mason University

    Volume and tone of global news coverage, derived from a continuously monitored global media index.

    Limits — Measures media attention only. Coverage volume is NOT evidence that an event occurred, nor how severe it is.

  • ECB reference rates

    European Central Bank

    Daily euro foreign-exchange reference rates and the euro area government bond yield curve, fixed by the ECB at 14:15 CET on every TARGET business day.

    Limits — Euro-denominated and reference-only: these are not executable quotes, and the curve covers the euro area rather than US or Asian rates. The Bank suspended its Russian rouble reference rate in March 2022, so no rouble reading is tracked here.

Tracked economies

  • 🇨🇳 China
  • 🇺🇸 United States
  • 🇷🇺 Russia
  • 🇮🇷 Iran
  • 🇹🇼 Taiwan
  • 🇰🇷 South Korea
  • 🇯🇵 Japan
  • 🇳🇱 Netherlands
  • 🇬🇧 United Kingdom
  • 🇩🇪 Germany
  • 🇮🇳 India
  • 🇹🇷 Türkiye
  • 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates
  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
  • 🇸🇬 Singapore
  • 🇧🇷 Brazil
  • 🇿🇦 South Africa
  • 🇲🇾 Malaysia